Commodity Futures Historic Trendlines

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Historic Commodity Futures Trendlines

Historic Commodity Futures Trendlines Chart

The Six Year Commodity Futures Cycle

Although both the 1986 and 1992 bottoms
occurred almost in the middle of the July Quarter
the accelerated market advance began several months later after the basing period. 1999 inverted, with the first bottom in February and the final bottom in July. As we move into the 21st Century we will likely see this cycle and many others change as larger percentage of the various commodities are produced by emerging Nations.


The Charting Your Futures Historic commodity futures Trendline Study above, containing the Commodity Research Bureau Index (CRB), is designed to be used in conjunction with the CRB Work Sheet discussed in the Seasonal Cycle section. The CRB is the Dow Jones of Commodities. It may not control the day to day action of every commodity on the board, but I believe it does set the overall tone, which influences the general list. I also believe it is very important to identify the correlation of the particular market you are monitoring with the CRB.

The six year cycle outlined has been altered in recent years by changing the weighting of the Index, both in components and their relative percentage participation to the aggregate price. The current weighting is more indicative of the general commodity list than it's predecessor which was heavily weighted in grain.

Not all markets will bottom simultaneously, just as not all markets bottom at the same time in the stock market. That means we focus on the markets with similar Historic Worksheets to the CRB. They should be the new bull markets.

The CRB Historic Worksheets and Historic Trendline Studies are examples of how we determine direction on all markets. Worksheets on individual markets found under Historic Worksheets are more detailed and contain favorite months and Trendline Studies.

It is my hypothesis that these long term trendlines are actually support and resistance levels with the long term inflation rate and basic supply and demand factored in. That would account for the gentle up slope, and accuracy over many years.



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Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein may not indicate future results. Trading in futures and options entails significant risks of loss which should be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors.
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